Episode 1230: Our Cast is in the Jackpot
Date June 14, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the end of Steven Brault’s strikeout streak, Brandon Nimmo’s non-HBP, Jacob deGrom’s and Mike Trout’s latest futile heroics, the Mariners’ luck, leaked umpire audio, Hank Aaron on bottle boning, the new-and-improved Jordan Hicks, Miguel Cabrera being done for the year, post-substitution ejections, and a clever college play, then answer listener emails about Manny Margot, lineup loopholes, technical fouls, LeBron James, and Steph Curry, a league of John Jasos, strikeout-free shutouts, doubleheader hangovers and the AL East, and AL fans vs. NL fans, plus Stat Blasts about players per team, teams with the most impending retirees, and MLB fathers vs. MLB sons, two more J.R Smith analogs, and two more DH updates. Topics * Manny Margot * Other ideas for Tampa Bay Rays bullpen strategy * Penalizing teams for managerial outbursts * Baseball equivalents of novel basketball strategy * LeBron James playing for the Chicago White Sox * Teams with players in their last MLB season * Differences in players used per season * Talent gap in father-son MLB pairs * A team full of laid back players * Does the AL or NL have more fans? * Hangover effect from double headers? * Complete games without strikeouts? * Ejected after being removed from the game for a substitute * Episode 1225 follow-up: J.R. Smith baseball equivalents * Episode 1228 follow-up: Pitchers hitting and the DH Intro The Drifters, "Jackpot" Outro Jon Auer, "Bottom of the Bottle" Banter * Episode 1210 follow-up: Steven Brault's strikeoutless streak ended. * New York Mets' struggles and Jacob DeGrom's bad luck * Seattle Mariners' good luck and Los Angeles Angels struggles * Mike Trout's Safeco Field dominance * Episode 1211 follow-up: Brandon Nimmo's HBP called back, and how hard it is to find other times HBPs were called back * Episode 1059 follow-up: Hank Aaron said on a broadcast that he boned his bats with soda bottles. * San Diego Padres home run radio call * Tom Hallion and Terry Collins audio * Miguel Cabrera's season ending injury * Florida Gators trick steal of home plate during NCAA tournament Email Questions * Max: "What's up with Manny Margot?" * Reggie: "A friend and I were discussing the Rays use of relievers as starters, and were brainstorming other wonky ideas teams could try out. After going through a number of outlandish things, we think we've settled on something that could stick: NL Road teams starting their previous day's starter in the 9 spot. This strategy would only come into play in the rare occasion that the road team were to send 9 hitters to the plate in the top of the first. Instead of being locked into Jon Lester, the current day's starting pitcher, in the 9 spot, why not start the previous day's starting pitcher, Jose Quintana, there? If the Cubs were to bat around in the Top of the 1st, they could pinch hit Tommy LaStella with a chance to break the game wide open. If they don't bat around, simply swap in Lester for Quintana, and proceed with the rest of the game as normally planned. Is there any downside or rule that I'm missing?" * Jonathan: "In basketball a teams head coach can get a technical foul for arguing with a ref, which has actual in-game implications as the other team gets to shoot free throws and keep the ball. How different would baseball be if penalties could be assessed on a team for managerial outbursts beyond just the manager getting ejected. For example all runners would advance if the team is on defense or an extra out would be called if a team was hitting. Would this significantly alter the way managers behave? Would notoriously hot-headed managers find it harder to get jobs?" * Jerry: Basketball Reddit considered having Steph Curry's teammates lock arms and form a ring around him, so he could take open shots. "What do you think the baseball equivalent of this strategy would be?" * Leo: "As you may know, both the Chicago Bulls and the Chicago White Sox are owned by the same man, Jerry Reinsdorf. As you also may know, James is currently holding the NBA hostage with his free agency. LeBron has always been eager to prove his superiority to Micheal Jordan, and what better way to show this than proving he’s a better baseball player? My question is simple: what if LeBron James told Reinsdorf he would sign with the Bulls, but only if he batted leadoff and was the starting centerfield for the White Sox. Would Reinsdorf do it?" * Eric: "A friend of mine posted on twitter that in 2011 the Minnesota Twins had 8 players make an appearance that never played MLB baseball again. That seemed like a lot, but I'm wondering, what is the most players to appear for a team in one season and never make another appearance again?" * Jared: "One thing I have been keeping track of is how few players have played for the Astros this season compared to the rest of the league. Right now they have played 29 players (with James Hoyt facing 3 batters in one appearance) where as most of the league is at around 38. Colorado is at 33 which I assume will go up in September when they will be out of the race where as Houston could be battling for playoff spots. To me this interesting since it shows how healthy they have been, effective their pitchers have been, and how little they have had to make pitching changes especially in today's game. My question is what has been the biggest difference in players used from team with the least players used and most players used in the same season." * Michael: "I was wondering about second generation MLB players. Specifically if there is a trend for the father or the son to be the better player. My suspicion is that it balances it, like for every Bobby/Barry Bonds there’s a Gwynn/Gwynn jr. Thought it could be a fun Father’s Day topic - hopefully the dads come out on top!" * Daniel: "While listening to the fascinating interview with John Jaso, I had a thought. What value does a self actualized personality have? Imagine a scenario where an entire team or an entire league had the personality of John Jaso. They have the same skills and attributes that they would normally have, but now they all have the laid back laissez-faire personality that John Jaso has. Here are some outcomes I can foresee: 1. Little to no conflict between teammates. 2. No bench clearing brawls. 3. Players would be better about communicating injuries, (Personal health would be a priority for everyone.) 4. Smaller contracts, less money hungry players. 5. Earlier retirements. 6. Better post-game interviews. Could the solution to baseball’s young people problem be that there aren’t enough Jaso-like players in the league? Would a front office have any incentive to try to gather more personalities like his?" * Ben: "Are there more fans of the teams in the American League or teams in the National League?" * Amos: "Despite being only 203 miles apart, the Yankees and Red Sox are now separated by 5 games (not) played -- 4 of which are due to weather postponements (well, technically, 3 1/3). FanGraphs' projections have the Yankees winning the division by 1 game, but give them a 2.5 game edge in playoff odds -- the difference presumably due to the difference in remaining strength of schedule (.492 vs. .508). But I suspect that Playoff Odds do not include a double-header adjustment. An article in The Hardball Times by Shane Tourtellotte from 2012 found a robust 0.027 winning percentage shortfall for the 30 days following a double header. Perusal of the Yankees' schedule identifies, in addition to the already played (and split) double header against the Tigers last week, 3 upcoming double headers resulting from the Yankees' missed games: 6/18 @ Nationals (quasi-double header; game 2 starts T6, tied 3-3) (formerly a day off). 7/9 @ Orioles (game 2 is a makeup). 8/25 @ Orioles (game 2 is a makeup).(The Red Sox have had just 2 weather postponements, the makeup games for which are already behind them, and may avoid playing a double header all season.) With a 30 day window after each, the Yankees' double headers basically cover the rest of the season. Even assuming no compounding effect for overlapping hangovers, that 0.027 adjustment drops the Yankees' expected ROS W% win percentage just below the Red Sox's. In a race this close, should the effect of the postponed games make the Red Sox the (very slight) favorites to win the division, despite the Yankees' better projection?" * Alan: "I was playing MLB the Show today and I threw a complete game shutout with the pitcher having zero strikeouts (Eickoff). And I’m on scout’s honor that I’m on the variable difficulty and am on hall of fame + Difficulty for pitching. My question is: has there ever been an MLB pitcher in all of baseball history who has thrown a complete game with no strikeouts? Has this occurred in the last 20 years with pitchers being better than ever? Is it just crazy BABIP luck or is it based on a particular skill set?" * Dave: "I was a little surprised that nobody seems to be making the argument in favor of pitcher hitting that I would find most compelling – namely, that there is enough difference in hitting skill among various pitchers that it isn’t really fair to take that away from the better ones as part of their value package. That would be similar (but not exactly analogous) to not wanting to let robo-umps take away framing as a way that some catchers can add extra value relative to their peers.I think Jeff’s analogy to baserunning is pretty good – it’s a thing where there isn’t a huge difference among teams in the total package they get, but there is a big difference between the best and worst individuals. Is that worth preserving? I don’t feel strongly about that, but as I said I’m surprised that nobody is making that kind of argument, rather than arguing from aesthetics or threats to revenue or Moral Superiority." * Jeff (San Francisco): "My question is simple. Who is a better hitter, Madison Bumgarner or the current version of Chris Davis? Which will have a better season as a hitter in 2018? Which would have a better season if both had a full season worth of at bats?" Stat Blast Early in the episode, Jeff does a Stat Blast-like investigation into pitchers who have an excellent outing, but whose team nevertheless loses the game. * Jacob DeGrom has started five games so far where he threw 7 or more innings, gave up at most one run, but his team lost. Five such games puts him in a tie for 6th place since the start of the expansion era in 1961, and it's only June 13th. * The single-season record is 7 games, dubiously accomplished by Don Drysdale (1964) and Roger Craig (1963). * Don Sutton has the career record with 30. Near the end of the episode, Jeff does a Stat Blast-like investigation into teams that struck out no one in a game. * In the 2000's, the 2005 Giants played six games in which they failed to strike out anyone. Next closest was the 2003 Giants with three games. * In the 2010's, the 2011 Royals did it three times. There were five teams with two games. * So far this season, every team has managed to strike out at least one opponent each game. * The phenomenon is rare, and given current trends, getting rarer. Ben answers several listener emails as part of a Stat Blast segment. First up is the number of players on a team in their last MLB season. * Dan Hirsch provided a spreadsheet, linked below. * Eric's friend miscounted. There were actually ten players who spent their last MLB season on the 2011 Twins. * Ben threw out the 2017 teams, because many of those players may end up appearing at some point this season. * Ben threw out the 1945 teams, because many of the players were replaced by stars returning from WW2. * Ben threw out the 1915 teams, because that was the year the Federal League folded. * The 1946 New York Giants had 23 players on their roster who never played in MLB again. * The leader in recent years is the 2006 Washington Nationals, with 20 players in their last MLB season. Next is the number of players used by a team in a season, which has been growing over time. * Hans Van Slooten from Baseball Reference provided the data, linked below. * In 1914, the first year with 25-man rosters, the average MLB team used 33 players. * Last year the average MLB team used 50 players, still with 25-man rosters. * In recent years, the biggest spread was 2014: the Texas Rangers used 64 players and the Atlanta Braves used only 39 players. Finally is the comparison of fathers and sons. * Hans Van Slooten from Baseball Reference provided the data, linked below. * There have been 243 MLB father/son pairs. * Fathers of MLB players average 11.9 WAR per player, while their sons only average 6.3 WAR. * Ben wondered if the sons are underperforming because many are still playing and accumulating WAR, so he removed the 22 pairs that included active players. * Contrary to Ben's expectations, excluding active players made the difference even bigger: Fathers average 12.1 WAR, sons 6.2 WAR. * Jeff thinks that selection bias is at play. Teams will give the son of a great player a longer leash, hoping to capture the magic, but they turn out to be just average players, because most players are just average. * The biggest difference is Eddie Collins with 124 WAR, compared with Eddie Collins, Jr. with −1 WAR.. Notes * Steven Brault winds up tied for 5th place for most at-bats by a pitcher to start a career without striking out. The record holder is Fred Hutchinson with 128 at-bats. Hutchinson debuted in 1939, "back in the days when pitchers could actually hit a little bit," says Jeff. * In the month of June the Mets have scored 14 runs and have a team OPS of .449, worst in the MLB, and .107 behind the next worst team. Jacob DeGrom's WAR is higher than his pitcher wins total this season. * Mike Trout is the first player ever to have back-to-back multi-HR games at Safeco Field, yet the Angels lost both games. * "It would take some sort of monumental collapse for the Mariners to not make the playoffs," says Jeff, who immediately acknowledges that this is potentially "a narrative in the works." * Dan Hirsch calculates that the Mariners have achieved their best odds of making the playoffs since 2003. * Padres radio broadcast Mark Grant calls a home run by simply shouting "Launch angle! Exit velocity!" Jeff and Ben amuse themselves by making their own home run calls consisting of names of advanced statistics. * Ben is fascinated by the video of the argument between Terry Collins and Tom Hallion, because it reveals what happens during manager arguments. * Tom Hallion uses the phrase "ass is in the jackpot" twice. Neither Ben nor Jeff had heard this phrase before, but Ben found it in the dictionary, and plays a clip from No Country for Old Men that uses the phrase. * What's up with Manny Margot? "Well, he's not very good," answers Jeff. He is not very powerful and isn't very patient, which makes it difficult for him to develop into a good hitter. * Reggie's plan would not work because there is a MLB rule that requires the starting pitcher to face at least one batter unless the are injured or ejected. There is also a rule that requires the starting DH to bat at least once unless the opposing team changes pitchers. * For managerial misbehavior, Ben thinks a run is too severe a penalty, "unless the manager kills someone." Jeff tries to pin Ben down on this surprisingly light punishment. "Are you suggesting that if the manager kills someone, you would penalize his team a run?" Jeff then calculates whether it's worth giving up a run if you could kill Mike Trout in Game 7 of the World Series. "I'm not here advocating murder," clarifies Jeff. * Ben called out this Facebook answer by Ben Freeman as the closest baseball analogue to the Steph Curry strategy: "Two runners shielding the third runner (likely the winning run) from being tagged by blocking the defenders from reaching him on a triple steal attempt." Jeff: "I think that maybe there's not a baseball equivalent." * If LeBron demanded to lead off and play center field, Jeff notes, "Well, he's probably not that much worse than Adam Engel," the current White Sox center fielder. * Jeff reminds us that Tim Tebow is in AA with an OPS of .699. * Ben thinks Reinsdorf would definitely do it. The White Sox aren't competitive right now, and it would boost attendance tremendously. * Jeff agrees, noting this would be a way to sweeten the deal without violating the NBA maximum salary. "Put all of his friends on the White Sox, who cares? Let him pitch!" * Jeff agrees that a team of John Jaso-type players would get along well. "More baseball players who clearly smoke marijuana." * Ben worries that such a team would be boring to watch. "You kind of want the hothead sociopath" to liven things up. Like it or not, brawls drum up interest in baseball. * Jeff considers a bipolar league, with half the teams laid back and half the teams super-agro. The hothead team wants to brawl, and their bullpen runs onto the field, but the laid-back team is just having a picnic by the dugout. * Ben consults two surveys on baseball team popularity, and both conclude that total fan bases for AL and NL are about equal in size, so the nationwide DH/no-DH brawl will be a fair fight. He apologizes that the answer is boring. * "Yeah, that is kind of boring, but I'm glad that you found that." - Jeff * Rick Porcello in 2014 was the last pitcher to throw a complete game with zero strikeouts. That has only happened seven times since 1990, and is unlikely to happen again unless current trends in baseball reverse themselves. * Chris Sale was ejected after being pulled from the mound, "The most cost-free time to possibly be ejected," says Ben. Madison Bumgarner's first ejection was after he was pulled from a game. * Two listeners suggested baseball equivalents to the J.R. Smith play in which he ran out the clock with a tie score under the mistaken belief that his team was winning. ** In the top of the first inning of Game 1 of the 2010 World Series, the Rangers had runners on first and third with one out. Nelson Cruz fielded a grounder and chased the runner back to third base, leaving the bases loaded and still only one out. However, in this case, the Giants escaped the inning without giving up any runs. ** A hypothetical situation in the bottom of the ninth, tie game, runner on third base and one out. The runner forgets the number of outs and breaks for home on contact on what could have been a game-winning sacrifice fly. This aligns with the J.R. Smith play in that (1) doing the right thing doesn't guarantee a win, (2) the game isn't over, and (3) the on-deck batter screaming at the runner to go back to third, like LeBron screaming at Smith to do something with the ball. * Responding to Dave's argument about pitchers hitting, Ben admits that he is not convinced because even the good-hitting pitchers aren't really that good, especially when compared to their value as pitchers. * Ben would still choose Chris Davis over Madison Bumgarner as a hitter. If Bumgarner got to hit every day, he would get more opportunities to improve, but opposing pitchers would also take the time to look for his hitting flaws, such as the fact that he's an extreme high-ball hitter. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1230: Our Cast is in the Jackpot * The Best Call of the Season by Jeff Sullivan (on batters intentionally getting hit by a pitch) * The Mariners Are First-Place Flukes - and They Deserve It by Ben Lindbergh * What Do We Think Of This Old Video Of An Umpire Handling An Extremely Pissed Terry Collins by Chris Thompson? * A Lip Reader Deciphers The Umpire-Manager Arguments Of 2012 by Ben Lindbergh and Evan Brunell * Florida Gators trick play stealing home * Baseball's Hardest Thrower Now Comes With Whiffs by Ben Lindbergh * Reddit thread about Steph Curry strategy * The double-header hangover effect by Shane Tourtellotte * Pinch-hitter, DH, and Other "Penalties" (revisited) by Mitchel Lichtman * Players Used Per Team, 1908-2017 * Teams with most players in their last MLB season * Father-Son MLB WAR Totals Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes